Tampa Bay Lightning Fantasy Preview
The Stammer-less era begins in Tampa with a bunch of roster changes, but one thing remains: Cooper is back for his 13th season. Slim pickings outside of Tampa's big 4.
In this team by team series, we’ll be previewing the 2024-25 season ahead with a specific look at banger category options. We’ll start tackling the potential lines to get a sense of deployment, we’ll rank players by offense, bangs (PIMs, hits and blocks) and overall value and finally feature a few players in depth.
Lineup projection
(update: Sep 20)
After reaching the Stanley cup finals 3 out of 3 years and winning 2 cups along the way, the Lightning followed up the last 2 seasons by getting knocked out in the first round of the playoffs.Â
There was a sense of tension in Tampa that their cup window was closing and that they needed to make some moves for a few final shots at a deep run, but Brisebois disagreed. He re-signed 33-year old Hedman to a 4 year 8M per contract and opted to sign Jake Guentzel and let long time captain Steven Stamkos walk to Nashville.Â
Lots of folks think the swap makes a ton of sense, an old guy for a young guy. But Guentzel isn’t as young as folks think, he’s entering his age 30 this season and Stamkos is 34. But the moves didn’t stop there, Brisebois got rid of Sergachev, Duclair, Dumba, Jeannot and a bunch of other guys and replaced them with Atkinson, Moser, McDonagh and Girgensons.Â
This has to be the craziest lineup changes that the lighting have undergone in recent years. But one thing didn’t change though, Jon Cooper is back behind the bench for his 13th season with the club. So there’s at least a sense of familiarity of what to expect in terms of deployment, but lots of new faces.Â
Since camp opened yesterday, we did get a sneak peak at potential line combos. But missing from camp is Eyssimont, Glendening isn’t at full strength and Logan Brown is on PTO.Â
Here’s my best guess at how things might settle:Â
Guentzel - Point - Kucherov
Hagel - Cirelli - Atkinson
Sheary - Paul - Eyssimont
Girgensons - Glendening - Ylönen
Extras: Goncalves, ChaffeeÂ
Hedman - Moser
McDonagh - Raddysh
Crozier - Cernak
Extras: Lilleberg, Perbix
PP1: Hedman, Guentzel, Point, Kucherov, Paul
PP2: Raddysh, Hagel, Eyssimont, Cirelli, Atkinson
Tampa Bay Lightning fantasy breakdown
Tampa has a clear big 4 who should be drafted inside the top 50 in most formats. Brandon Hagel is the 5th most valuable option and despite not getting L1 and PP1 deployment, he’s still a solid bet for 70 points. Outside of those guys, it’s pretty slim pickings.
Eyssimont is an interesting option in leagues that count PIMs and Cernak is a decent streamer or last round option for bangs. With the departure of Sergachev, JJ Moser or Darren Raddysh could bust out with solid offensive zone starts, but neither of them have amazing peripherals.
Player highlights
Nikita Kucherov
The Russian Rifle had a wild year last year posting a pace of 45 goals, 101 assists, 146 points and an insane 54 PPP and 310 shots. I say wild not just because he posted his 6th consecutive 100+ point pace season but because surpassed expectations in every single offensive category.Â
Most folks had Kuch pegged for 36 goals, 76 assists and 112ish points alongside 270 shots. He blew past those numbers by +9 goals, +25 apples, +34 points and +40 shots. He just turned 31, but age didn’t stop this man from having a career year. Let’s have a closer look at what the hell happened though.
Let’s start with the shots. Over his previous 3 seasons Kuch had a SOG/GP rate of 3.1, 3.1 and 3.3 but last year that rate jumped to 3.8. But he also recorded the highest average TOI of his career, skating for a whopping 21:40. Looking at his 5v5 SOG/60 rates does show solid improvement (+16%) compared to his previous 3 seasons. So part of the bump in total SOG is due to a boost in TOI but mainly an improvement in his SOG/60. Over his final 38 games last year though, Kuch saw his SOG pace drop back down to a more reasonable 257.Â
Let’s look at his conversion rate. Compared to his previous 3 seasons, Kucherov’s iSH% is up +12% last year, but mainly because of his PP efficiency. His PP iSH% was up +23% but his 5v5 iSH% was actually down -8%. His goal scoring was purely because his shot volume was way up, the numbers don’t show that he was shooting any differently or more dangerously. At 5v5, both his ixG/60 (-4%) and his iSCF/60 (-3%) were down a bit. So the real question is, how much is he going to shoot next year?
Aside from goal scoring efficiency, Kucherov’s 2A/60 were just a tad high (+7%), his 5v5 on-ice SH% was pretty flat, but his 5v5 IPP was a bit too high (+17%). None of these numbers scream a ton of luck and an inflated +25 assist performance though. Where we do see improvement is in his iCF/60 at 5v5 which was up +24% good for 18th in the NHL. So that could potentially explain the bump in IPP, the man was driving play and generating an elite number of chances.
The craziness doesn’t stop there though, one last thing to call out. He took sizable steps back in PIMs/60 (-51%) and hits/60 (-30%) at 5v5, but Kucherov decided to start blocking shots last year, and a crap ton of them at that. Over his previous 3 seasons, his blks/60 at 5v5 was 0.19 which resulted in 20-25 blocks per year. But last year that rate busted +695% all the way up to 1.51 which resulted in a total of 35, including 43 over his second half. Still not elite numbers by any means, but interesting to note.
All in all, whether you think Kuch is going to fire 270 shots or cross 300 shots again, we’re talking about elite goal totals either way. The drop back down to Earth in the second half does make me lean more towards the 270. I don’t think he crosses 100 assists again, but nothing indicates that he can’t come close to 90, unless his chemistry with Guentzel really doesn’t work. Either way, Kucherov is a top 5 pick in any format. In a banger league with PIMs, I’d only take McDavid, Mack and Brady ahead of him. But if you don’t count PIMs, I’d take Kuch over Brady.
Jake Guentzel
Jake is obviously a bit tricky to project given his new unknown situation. Not that his deployment is in question, he’s all but assured L1 and PP1 next to Kuch and Point… but the question of chemistry is a valid one. Jake isn’t Stammer, especially not on the man advantage or in the faceoff dot. But Guentzel is the better 5v5 performer. And yes, you can make both arguments, will Stamkos still be that PP performer without Kuch, and will Jake still be the same 5v5 player without Sid. We’ll see.
Jake played in 67 games last year and paced for 94 points, 27 PPPs and 291 shots. That pace was a bit different in his second half (26 games), his PP pace was way up to 39 but his shots were back down to 262.Â
Aside from being unlucky in the conversion department (especially on the PP) there’s some encouraging progression in the underlying numbers for Guentzel. His 5v5 SOG/60 improved (+19%), his ixG/60 improved quite a bit (+39%) and most encouragingly, both his iCF/60 (+22%) and iSCF/60 (+16%) both went up as well. He did all of this while keeping his IPP, on-ice SH% and 2A/60 numbers relatively flat.Â
Guentzel is changing his peripheral game quite a bit over the last few years though. Once counted on to be a 140+ hit guy, he paced for less than 60 hits last year and that dropped in the second half as well. His PIMs/60 and Blks/60 at 5v5 also regressed negatively.Â
We’ll wait to see how well he clicks with Point and Kucherov, but there’s little reason to think Jake can’t pace for 90+ points next year while also getting solid shots and power play contributions. I’ve got Guentzel ranked inside the top 25 and I wouldn’t let him slip outside too late into the 3rd round of your 12 team draft. Â
Victor Hedman
The 33 year old newly minted captain had a massive bounceback year last year. After pacing for just 53 points in 2022-23, he responded with a return to the 80 point pace plateau alongside 33 PPP and a whopping 80 PIMs. His hits and blocks fell below expectations but they did bounce back in the second half to 84 and 121.Â
Lots of folks (myself included) thought last year was the year Sergachev would supplant Hedman as PP1 QB given the previous year he had. But we all know how that happened. Hedman even banished Sergachev out of Tampa and now has virtually no competition for his role.Â
There’s a few red flags in Hedman’s metrics last year compared to his previous 3 seasons that are worth unpacking. First off, his 5v5 iSH% was inflated (+31%) despite seeing his iSCF/60 decline -10%. Also concerning was several metrics were too high, his 5v5 on-ice SH% was +17%, his 5v5 IPP was up +21% and his 2A/60 was also up +35%. All of those things point to some extra luck and is likely to regress negatively.Â
As mentioned, his 5v5 PIMs/60 were up +67% last year but his hits/60 were down -36%. Maybe he’s lost a step on the speed front and can’t connect as many body checks which is making him grumpier and leading to more minor penalties.Â
Overall Hedman is ranked inside the top 50 in most formats, I have him as the 8th best D in banger leagues, but he’s pretty much tied in terms of value with Dobson (9th) and Seider (10th).
Brayden Point
Brayden Point is a very unique player. Last year, he scored 47 goals on 230 shots. Consider that of the 9 other players last year who paced for at least 45 goals, the average SOG among them was 340. Sam Reinhart and Point are the only two players to put up 45+ goals while shooting less than 235 shots. Sam’s unsustainable iSH% is well documented, but Point on the other hand has a history of doing this.
In his previous 3 seasons (204 games), Point averaged an individual SH% of 18.82%, last year he converted on a tad over 20%. So yes it was a tiny bit high (+7%) but not like the +49% that Sam Reinhart experienced.Â
There’s 6 players who converted on 20% or more of their shots last year (min 19 GP) but all of those players had a huge increase in iSH% compared to their 3 previous seasons: Milano (+118%), Reinhart (+49%), Joshua (+61%), Mantha (+97%) and Hoglander (+115%). All except Point who was only up +7%.Â
Before 2022-23 though, Points converted on 16%, 17.6% and 17.7% of his shots. But that jumped to 21.7% in 2022-23, so lots of folks, including myself, expected that to come back down to the 17% range, but he did it again, crossing 20% for the 3rd time in his career. That puts his career average to 18.3% and his last 3 seasons at 19.6%.Â
Maybe it’s the result of being stapled next to Kucherov, maybe he’s the next Joe Pavelski, either way Point has proven that he can convert on at least 18-19% of his shots and that’s where I have him projected next year.Â
Nothing too crazy in his other metrics to report, 2A/60 was tad low, SOG/60 were flat, on-ice SH% was flat, IPP was pretty flat, ixG/60 was a tad high but iSCF/60 was a tad low. The only big fluctuations were in his banger stats. At 5v5, Point had big decreases in PIMs/60 (-59%) and Hits/60 (-72%) but his blocks/60 were way up (+160%).
Clearly Point is not a well rounded multi category stud but he’s so elite in offense that he still ranks as the 54th skater in banger leagues and the 23rd best C. If he’s available for you in the 5th round of your 12 team league, he’ll be hard to pass up, you just need to factor in that you’ll have to go a bit more banger heavy with the next few picks. If your league doesn’t count PIMs though, Point jumps up to the 40th ranked skater and is worth a grab in the 4th.Â
Conor Geekie
Conor Geekie was part of the return for Sergachev and is expected to spend most of the year in the AHL after graduating from the WHL last year. We could see glimpses of him throughout the year as a call up and wouldn’t be totally shocked if he stuck with the team in a bottom 6 role for extended periods of time. This guy is a future banger league stud. Elite offense paired with awesome rate stats in shots, Hits and PIMs. He loves to throw his weight around and I can’t wait to see him in Tampa.
Sources I used in part for this article:
Frozen Tools from DobberHockey. Game Logs, Line Combinations, NHL Lineups, Advanced Stats, Boxscores, Reports and more.
Fantasy Hockey Life. Prospects, Team Previews, Draft Content, Dynasty Strategy and more.
Natural Stat Trick. Line Combos, Shift Chart, Advanced Stats, Expected Goals, Shot Attempts, Rush Attempts, Zone Starts, Scoring Chances, IPP, Corsi and more.
HockeyViz from Micah Blake McCurdy. Visualizations, Predictions, Shot Maps, WOWYs, Quality of Teammates, Common Linemates, 5v5 Shift Starts and more.