Seattle Kraken Fantasy Preview
Dan Bylsma is back in the NHL after a 7 year hiatus. Who stands to benefit most? Do we finally see Wright become a regular NHLer? Can Beniers bounce back? Will Montour vs Dunn be a season-long battle?
In this team by team series, we’ll be previewing the 2024-25 season ahead with a specific look at banger category options. We’ll start tackling the potential lines to get a sense of deployment, we’ll rank players by offense, bangs (PIMs, hits and blocks) and overall value and finally feature a few players in depth.
Lineup projection
(update: Sep 9th)
The Seattle Kraken finished the 2023-24 NHL season with a 34-35-13 record, good for 25th in the league. They ranked 29th in GF, 9th in GA (with a -19 goal differential), 17th in PP%, and 20th in PK%. After making it to the second round of the playoffs in 2022-23, the Kraken missed the postseason last year, which ultimately spelled the end of Dave Hakstol’s tenure as Head Coach in Seattle.
Dan Bylsma rides back into the NHL fold, this time with the weight of making sense of an interesting roster on a fresh new franchise. Known for his midseason takeover of the Penguins in 2008-09, he led the team through 25 regular-season games before orchestrating a dramatic Stanley Cup victory. For the next five years, Bylsma kept Pittsburgh in playoff contention but never reached those championship heights again. Fired in 2014, he reemerged briefly with the Sabres, but two seasons without playoff appearances cut that stint short. Now, after seven long years away from a head coaching role, Bylsma returns, once again tasked with breathing life into a team that needs it.
Bylsma is known for implementing an up-tempo, high-scoring offensive system. Under his leadership, teams tend to focus on fast-paced, attacking play, high goal production and aggressive forechecking… which could bode really well for the players in his arsenal.
This past off-season saw the Kraken bolster the lineup, by adding Brandon Montour, Chandler Stephenson, however they did lose Brian Dumoulin and Tomas Tatar. 2022 4th overall pick Shane Wright figures to take a step forward in his development and play the entire season with the Kraken, while Matty Beniers is a nice bounceback candidate after a disappointing season.Â
With a new and fresh perspective in Seattle, and with so much time since his last stint in the NHL, it will be interesting to see what HC Bylsma does with this roster.Â
Here’s my best guess for now:
McCann - Beniers - Eberle
Schwartz - Stephenson - Burakovsky
Tolvanen - Gourde - Bjorkstrand
Kartye - Wright - Tanev
Extras: Biro, Meyers
Dunn - Larsson
Oleksiak - Montour
Evans - Borgen
Extras: Mahura, Fleury
Daccord
Grubauer
How’s how the PP units could shake out:
PP1: McCann, Beniers, Eberle, Stephenson, Dunn/Montour
PP2: Wright, Tolvanen, Burakovsky, Bjorkstrand, Montour/Dunn
Seattle Kraken breakdown
In the sea of the Kraken, there aren’t many Bangers cats league options to choose from, let alone top tier options. Brandon Montour was fantastic two years ago, but last season’s regression & uncertain PP deployment coming up gives reason for concern.
McCann & Vince Dunn are decent mid-to-late draft options. Bjorkstrand and Beniers present some solid streaming options should you be looking to add some offense, and Tolvanen will give you solid hits and probably some PP deployment, but leaves you wanting more across the board. Brandon Tanev, while still a beauty, just doesn’t bang as much as he used to. Larsson and Borgen certainly do bang & could make for decent streaming options.
Player highlights
Brandon Montour
Fresh off of a Stanley Cup dub, Brandon Montour joins the Seattle Kraken after inking a 7 year, $50-million contract. He’s the shiny new toy brought in by the management team, adding some highly coveted playoff experience.
Last season, Montour was limited to just 66 games after having missed time at the start of the season due to an injury that occurred during the previous year’s deep playoff run. In these 66 games, Montour paced for 10 goals and 31 assists for 41 points, 21 STP, 209 SOG, 57 PIMs, 129 hits, and 83 blocks.
What is important to highlight about Montour, though, was that in the 2022-23 season he overtook the PP1QB position and got 73 points, 242 SOG, and 34 PPP with 4:15 PPTOI/G. While he didn’t post the same numbers last year, his PPTOI/G was still up there at 3:54. Had he been healthy to start the year (including the rest of the squad), perhaps the results would have been better this past year.
Comparing last year’s underlying numbers to his previous 3 seasons, it appears that Montour was super unlucky across the board. The iSH% was down by -32%, 5v5 iSH% down by -24%, PP iSH% down by -29%, 5v5 IPP down by -23%, and the 5v5 2A/60 was down by -33 - just to name a few. Looking at this data, it would be easy to say that I expect a big bounce back year from Montour as he’s fully healthy to start the year and his metrics should regress positively, but it’s currently super unclear how the deployment will unfold in Seattle.
Montour could get the first shot at the PP1QB spot because of his previous success on a PP1 unit & Seattle’s PP% ranked just 17th overall last year, but we just don’t know what Bylsma plans to do. Perhaps he decides that it’ll go to the team’s highest paid defenseman - Vinny Dunn. Or, maybe Dunn and Montour go splitsville. Buyer beware.
Brandon Montour is currently being projected for a conservative 13 goals and 34 assists for 47 points, adding 18 STP, 207 SOG, 70 PIMs, 110 hits, and 85 blocks. These projections take into consideration the strong season in 2022-23 while playing on one of the better PP1 units in the league with Florida, the regression that occurred just last season, and the 37 point pace from 2021-22.
At these projections, Brandon Montour is ranked as D24 and 105th overall. Montour has a pretty high ceiling for points, but also a good floor. Outside of the point production, Montour brings some feistiness to your lineup as a solid contributor to the PIMs cat (a TRUE bangers league cat), has good hits, but mediocre block totals.
Jared McCann
McCann finished the 2023-24 season with 31 goals and 32 assists for 63 points, adding 24 STP, 214 SOG, 28 PIMs, 51 hits, and 26 blocks in 80 games. Compared to McCann’s 70 points from the previous season, and while maintaining the same deployment, it’s fair to say that he fell short of expectations - much like the Kraken team as a whole.
Looking at the underlying numbers, McCann’s iSH% was down by -17%, and his 5v5 iSH% was down by -26%, which represents some bad luck in the shooting department compared to his previous 3 seasons. I would expect some positive regression here next season. All other metrics are relatively flat, but his 5v5 2A/60 stands out a little bit as he was up by +27%. It’s possible that there’s slight regression with the increased assist luck, but this may be off-set by the addition of Montour and his potential impact on PP1.
McCann is currently projected for 35 goals and 35 assists for 70 points, adding 23 STP, 226 SOG, 27 PIMs, 55 hits, and 29 blocks. These projections represent a bit of a bounce back year for McCann under a new coach and with the key offensive additions mentioned previously, and for him to find the twine a little more often. These projections rank McCann as C44 and 119th overall in banger cats leagues. McCann becomes a great option at a bargain price if you need a goal scorer that plays on a PP1 unit. But, keep in mind that he provides mediocre peripherals for your team.
Vince Dunn
While he only played in 59 games, Vinny Dunn actually paced for a cool 15 goals and 49 assists for 64 points, adding 23 STP, 167 SOG, 108 PIMs, 54 hits, and 89 blocks last season. It was a pretty solid season for the defenseman fantasy-wise, minus the injuries. At this pace, it’s fair to say that Dunn met last year’s expectations, and even slightly exceeded them.
You’re looking at a bangers cats league beauty as Dunn blended good points with high-level PIMs, but he was a little soft last year pacing for just 54 hits as a D-man. His second half performance took a bit of a notable dip, though, as he paced for 15 goals and 41 assists for 55 points.
Looking at the underlying metrics, Dunn’s iSH% was up by +17%. As he’s a pretty low volume shooter for someone with such great deployment, Dunn should be expected to score a little less often next season. Dunn’s 5v5 2A/60 was actually down by -28%, which suggests he should get a little luckier next season with assists. Though, this could be a wash if he’s not playing on PP1 as often, due to the addition of Montour.
Vinny Dunn is being projected for 12 goals and 41 assists for 53 points, adding 17 STP, 151 SOG, 77 PIMs, 78 hits, and 88 blocks. This represents his SH% coming down a little bit towards his 3 year average, and Montour eating into his assists and STP. His PIMs were up by quite a bit last season, and these projections consider that he’ll be a little more disciplined under the new coaching staff.
These projections have Dunn ranked as D32 and 130th overall in banger cats leagues. Dunn is a good option on defense past the midway point of the draft, as he can put up some good point totals and brings a healthy amount of PIMs to your lineup. He’s also expected to hit a little more than last year, considering he’s going to be healthy and shouldn’t miss any time. His low shot volume hurts him as an offensive defensemen, and Montour eating into his PPTOI should be kept in mind.
Eeli Tolvanen
Eeli Tolvanen just had his career best offensive season in 2023-24, getting 16 goals and 25 assists for 41 points, adding 10 STP, 153 SOG, 24 PIMs, 210 hits, and 75 blocks in 81 games. Tolvanen has been an intriguing option in bangers cats leagues for a few years now, as he offers a high volume of hits & as we are still exploring his offensive ceiling while getting PP1 deployment.
While getting the most TOI/G and PPTOI/G of his career thus far, it’s fair to say that Tolvanen has met expectations by posting career best numbers, but there are still many that are hoping for him to crack a team’s top 6 and offer even more offensive production & PP conversion.
Looking at the underlying metrics for Tolvanen, what is interesting is that his iSH% was down by -12% and his PP iSH% was down by -81%. Tolvanen getting better shooting luck next season could see him score more goals if he increases his SOG/G rate. His 5v5 IPP was up by +43%, which could suggest that his career year was accomplished by his own efforts since he did play with better linemates. What is a little concerning, though, is that his 5v5 2A/60 were up by +46%, which means he may have gotten a bit lucky with assists last season, and that may have influenced his 5v5 IPP. A mini break-out season and extra luck could both have been at play.
Tolvanen is currently being projected for 17 goals and 26 assists for 43 points, adding 10 STP, 154 SOG, 25 PIMs, 186 hits, and 68 blocks. These projections represent that, instead of taking another step forward, Tolvanen will maintain the level he elevated his game at last year. This considers that he’s become a 40+ point player, but there was a little bit of luck involved, too, preventing further offensive growth.
These projections have Tolvanen ranked as LW82 and 206th overall. Tolvanen figures to stay in the bottom 6 under Bylsma, but would be an interesting option should injuries occur in the top 6. Until he gets that top 6 deployment, Tolvanen remains a good streaming option for hits that will get you an STP here and there. As the peripherals are quite low, holding onto him for too long will hurt you in a cats league.
Tye Kartye
Karyte is in tough to get meaningful minutes in Seattle this year but he has a chance to work his way up the lineup, and if he does, he’s worth a stream. His 13.09 Hits/60 at 5v5 last year was good for 43rd in the NHL, just behind Brady Tkachuk and ahead of Evander Kane.
Sources I used in part for this article:
Frozen Tools from DobberHockey. Game Logs, Line Combinations, NHL Lineups, Advanced Stats, Boxscores, Reports and more.
Fantasy Hockey Life. Prospects, Team Previews, Draft Content, Dynasty Strategy and more.
Natural Stat Trick. Line Combos, Shift Chart, Advanced Stats, Expected Goals, Shot Attempts, Rush Attempts, Zone Starts, Scoring Chances, IPP, Corsi and more.
HockeyViz from Micah Blake McCurdy. Visualizations, Predictions, Shot Maps, WOWYs, Quality of Teammates, Common Linemates, 5v5 Shift Starts and more.