Ottawa Senators Fantasy Preview
Brady is an undisputed top 5 pick in any league that counts SOGs and Hits. He's a top 3 pick if you count PIMs. Timmy should bounce back under Green. Bath is a solid option. Sandy vs Chabot for PP1?
In this team by team series, we’ll be previewing the 2024-25 season ahead with a specific look at banger category options. We’ll start tackling the potential lines to get a sense of deployment, we’ll rank players by offense, bangs (PIMs, hits and blocks) and overall value and finally feature a few players in depth.
Lineup projection
(update: Sep 3)
The 2023-24 season in Canada’s Capital saw Head Coach DJ Smith fired during his 5th season behind the bench, and Jacques Martin was added as interim Head Coach for 56 games. Jacques was meant to stabilize the group and to fix the team’s poor defensive play, and the team ultimately finished with a 37-41-4 record, for 26th overall. The team was ranked 20th in GF, 27th in GA, 23rd in PP%, and 29th in PK%. The Sens were quite terrible across the board.
The off-season saw the Sens ship away Jakob Chychrun, Jonas Korpisalo, Mark Kastellic, while adding a true #1 goalie in Linus Ullmark, Nick Jensen, Nick Cousins and David Perron. The bottom 6 is going to have quite a different look, as GM Steve Staois has sought to add leadership, speed, and playoff experience. Travis Green has been hired as the coach to guide this team back to the playoffs for the first time since 2017-18. It’s anyone’s guess as to what the lines will look like for the 2024-25 season, but known for his difficult and exhaustive training camps, deployment to start the season may come down to decisions based on performance.
Here’s my best guess for now:
Tkachuk - Stutzle - Batherson
Perron - Norris - Giroux
Greig - Pinto - Amadio
Gregor - Cousins - MacEwen
Extras: Ostapchuk, Jenik
Sanderson - Zub
Chabot - Jensen
Kleven - Bernard-Docker
Extras: Hamonic
Ullmark
Forsberg
Potential PP units:
PP1: Tkachuk, Stutzle, Batherson, Norris, Sanderson
PP2: Pinto, Giroux, Perron, Greig, Chabot
Ottawa Senators fantasy breakdown
The Senators have some pretty solid options that are worth owning in bangers leagues. Tim Stutzle is a player with a very solid offensive upside while providing a sneaky good amount of peripherals, same with Drake Batherson but with a lower offensive ceiling. Josh Norris used to be a solid goal scorer that would also throw the body at a good rate, but it remains to be seen what type of player he will be after experiencing years of shoulder pain.Â
Shane Pinto brings good category coverage across the board and may see some time in the team’s top 6. David Perron and Ridly Greig are expected to stir things up on a nightly basis. On defense, there’s Jake Sanderson & Thomas Chabot, both capable of quarterbacking the team’s PP1, expected to battle for top deployment while providing a solid amount of blocks. And more importantly than everyone listed above, there’s the Tkaptain Brady Tkachuk - Banger’s Fantasy Hockey crown jewel - who is just a goal scoring, shooting, hitting, and fighting machine.
Player highlights
Brady Tkachuk
The 24 year old captain Brady Tkachuk is entering his 7th season in the NHL after a solid 37 goals and 37 assists for 74 points, adding 22 STP, a whopping 357 shots, 134 PIMs, 298 hits, and 46 blocks performance. Those are some monster numbers for banger cats leagues. Over the 2nd half of the season, Brady actually paced for 37 goals and 47 assists for 84 points, surpassing the point-per-game mark, and also paced for 26 STP, 358 shots, 322 hits, and 50 blocks.Â
Looking at the underlying numbers, here are some quick hits that highlight Brady’s performance last season:
3rd in the NHL in SOG/60 at 5v5 (5th over the previous 3 seasons)
6th in the NHL in ixG/60 at 5v5 (4th over the previous 3 seasons)
9th in the NHL in iCF/60 at 5v5
8th in iSCF/60 at 5v5.
Other interesting facts;
there were only 10 other players that paced for 70+ points and 300+ SOGs last year, but none of them paced for more than 50 PIMs (while Brady paced for 136). None of them paced for more than 150 hits (while Brady paced for 298).
there were only 10 players that paced for 100 PIMs and 250 hits last year. None of them paced for more than 200 shots (while Brady paced for 361). None of them paced for more than 40 points (while Brady paced for 74).
Needless to say, Brady is quite the unicorn in bangers cats league, offering category coverage like no other.Â
Brady’s iSH% was up by just +8%, which suggests that he wasn’t benefitting from much extra luck when shooting the puck compared to his previous 3 seasons. The goal total seems quite repeatable, as he is expected to maintain his high shot volume. The 2A/60 (-33%) and 5v5 2A/60 (-50%) were down quite a bit compared to his previous 3 seasons, which suggests that he was a little bit unluckier when it came to secondary assists. These numbers should be expected to regress positively next season.Â
The Tkaptain is currently being projected for 37 goals and 44 assists for 77 points, adding 26 STP, 355 SOGs, 120 PIMs, 355 hits, and 34 blocks. This projection reflects Brady’s ability to score 35+ goals as his shot volume and iSH% are very consistent, and also considers better luck with secondary assists, while maintaining high-end level peripherals. We are still waiting to see if Brady can be a point per game player over the course of a full season.
These projections have Brady ranked as LW1 and 3rd overall in bangers cats leagues. While behind only McDavid and MacKinnon, and lacking the 100+ point upside as some other players that may be drafted in the 1st round, Brady is truly a unicorn that is unmatched when it comes down to contribution to player categories across the board on a nightly basis.Â
In terms of bangers cats league strategy; goals, assists, and STP are influenced by luck way more than SOGs, PIMs, hits, and blocks. Brady will show up for your team and help dominate the categories that rely on pure volume like no other, but will also help you in the categories that are influenced by luck. These types of players don’t fall in the draft. Names like Ryan O’Reilly or Michael Grandlund are no slouches offensively, but are always available late or even in Free Agency in this league format.
Don’t over think this one - Brady will provide you with a rock solid foundation for the rest of your season, making an impact in each player category (except for blocks, really), while allowing you to explore a variety of different players to fill out your roster. This fine wine pairs well with anything. He’s also insanely fun to watch and follow.
Tim Stutzle
After scoring 39 goals and adding 51 assists for 90 points in 78 games during the 2022-23 season, it was believed that Stutzle was breaking out as an elite offensive player in the league. However, he followed up last season with 18 goals and 52 assists for 70 points, with 22 STP, 192 SOGs, 100 hits, and 41 blocks in just 75 games.
Pacing for 76 points, last season was obviously quite disappointing and has hurt the expectations towards Stutzle. It’s important to note that those watching Stutzle closely have noticed that he was playing with athletic (Kinesio) tape at the base of his neck, which may have affected his play throughout the year.
The underlying numbers last season show some interesting data. Jimmy Stu’s iSH% was down by -34%, his 5v5 iSH% was down by -26%, and his PP iSH% was down by a whopping -80%, compared to his previous 3 seasons. Not only was Stutzle’s shooting % down, his SOG/G went from 2.9/G in 2022-23 to 2.6/G in 2023.24. Last season, Stutzle was firing the puck less often, and he converted on his shots even less, resulting in his 18 goal performance. With effective off-season recovery, these numbers are bound to bounce back to his 3 year average next season. Expect the goals to go up in 2024-25.
As for his assists, Stutzle’s 2A/60 was up by +92% while his 5v5 2A/60 was up by +112%. However, his on-ice SH% at 5v5 was pretty normal and so was his 5v5 IPP. So this likely balances itself out a bit but the 2A rates are quite drastic increases compared to his 3 year average. While they could possibly hint at Stutzle’s playmaking abilities rounding into form, they are more likely hinting at a negative regression closer to his 3 year average.
Next year, we’re banking on Timmy taking more shots & converting at a higher rate next year, while also buying the premise that his playmaking abilities have taken a step forward at a very young 22 years of age. Stutzle is ranked as C/LW12 and 27th overall in bangers cats leagues. He’s an exciting young player that provides solid offensive numbers with decent hits. While his offensive ceiling is in question with his recent down year, the offensive floor is pretty safe.Â
Drake Batherson
Drake concluded the 2023-24 season accumulating 28 goals and 38 assists for 66 points, adding 23 STP, 196 SOGs, 42 PIMs, 98 hits, and 33 blocks after having played in all 82 games for the second consecutive season. These numbers represented a small but important bounce back from the previous season, however, the SOG/G plummeted from 3.0/G to 2.4/G while the PPP dropped from 29 to 22. Overall, last season was a disappointing season offensively for Drake, as was with many other Sens players.Â
Under the hood, Drake was converting for more goals on fewer shots compared to his previous 3 seasons. Overall, his iSH% was up by +20%, while his 5v5 iSH% was up by +61% whereas his PP iSH% was down by -27%. To make matters more concerning, he was less dangerous last year as well seeing his iSCF/60 at 5v5 drop by -15%. At 26 years of age, Drake hasn’t yet shown to be a 30+ goal player. His total goals are expected to dip a little bit, as the iSH% corrects closer to his 3 year average, while his volume of shots should bounce back.
Batherson is currently projected for 26 goals and 43 assists for 69 points, adding 24 STP, 215 SOGs, 36 PIMs, 106 hits, and 34 blocks. These projections represent the above mentioned dip in goals, but with a bounce back with assists and shots. At these projections, Drake is ranked as RW27 and 83rd overall in bangers cats leagues. Drake provides solid category coverage while the team counts on him offensively.
Thomas Chabot
Chabot finished the 2023-24 season with a stat line of 9 goals and 21 assists for 30 points, adding 7 STP, 118 shots, 44 hits, and 88 blocks in just 51 games. Over the course of a full season, Chabby would have paced for 14 goals and 33 assists for 47 points, with 11 STP, 189 SOGs, 70 hits, and 141 blocks.
Averaging just 59 games per season over the last 3 years, it’s fair to say that the team’s former #1D and PP1QB’s play has fallen quite a bit and likely due to the accumulation of injuries. At his best, in 2018-19, Chabot paced for 16 goals 48 assists for 64 points, and with a new coach in town that will certainly appreciate his veteran presence, experience, and leadership, not all hope is lost.
Looking at the underlying numbers, Chabot’s PP TOI was down by -26% compared to his previous 3 seasons, which weighs heavily on his point totals. If Head Coach Travis Green decides to deploy Chabby on PP1, there’s solid potential for a bounce back year.
Chabby’s iSH% was up last year by +46%, while his PP iSH% was down by -50%, and 5v5 SOG/60 down by -13%. We should expect Chabot’s conversion to dip back closer to his 3 year average next season. His 2A/60 was up by only +7% and his 5v5 2A/60 was up by +15%, which suggests he wasn’t overly influenced by luck. Other interesting metrics are that his 5v5 PIMs/60 (-23%) and 5v5 Hits/60 (-31%) were quite down, and for bangers cats leagues, these are likely to regress positively back towards his 3 year average.Â
Currently, Chabot is projected for 11 goals and 35 assists for 46 points, adding 15 STP, 192 SOGs, 42 PIMs, 82 hits, and 138 blocks. These projections consider that Chabot will get slightly better luck with the PP metrics - more PP1TOI and/or slightly better conversion, while seeing a bit of a dip in goals. Some bangers cats totals are also likely to bounce back closer to his 3 year average as he is expected to be fully healthy for the 2024-25 season. At these projections, Chabot is ranked as D37 and 142nd overall. Chabot could be a sneaky good play if/when he falls in the draft, as much of his offensive production will depend on deployment. With a new Head Coach in town and a letter on the sweater, there are good chances that this could happen.
Sources I used in part for this article:
Frozen Tools from DobberHockey. Game Logs, Line Combinations, NHL Lineups, Advanced Stats, Boxscores, Reports and more.
Fantasy Hockey Life. Prospects, Team Previews, Draft Content, Dynasty Strategy and more.
Natural Stat Trick. Line Combos, Shift Chart, Advanced Stats, Expected Goals, Shot Attempts, Rush Attempts, Zone Starts, Scoring Chances, IPP, Corsi and more.
HockeyViz from Micah Blake McCurdy. Visualizations, Predictions, Shot Maps, WOWYs, Quality of Teammates, Common Linemates, 5v5 Shift Starts and more.
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