New York Rangers Fantasy Preview
New York Rangers Fantasy Preview
Tons of intriguing options in the Big Apple led by Panarin, Fox and Trocheck. Can Zibad bounce back? Does Rempe become a regular? Does Laf finally bust out?
In this team by team series, we’ll be previewing the 2024-25 season ahead with a specific look at banger category options. We’ll start tackling the potential lines to get a sense of deployment, we’ll rank players by offense, bangs (PIMs, hits and blocks) and overall value and finally feature a few players in depth.
Lineup projection
(update: Aug 29)
In their final games against the cup champs, NY ran a top 6 of Trocheck with Panarin and Laf, accompanied by Zibad, Kreider and a rotation spot that featured Wennberg, Chytil, Roslovic and Kakko. Reilly Smith looks like the prime candidate to take that top 6 spot with Kreider and Mika… but one would hope Kakko finally takes that spot.
Here’s my best guess for now:
Panarin - Trocheck - Lafreniere
Kreider - Zibanejad - Smith
Cuylle - Chytil - Kakko
Vesey - Carrick - Rempe
Lindgren - Fox
Miller - Schneider
Jones - Trouba
Igor
Quick
Potential PP units:
PP1: Fox, Zibanejad, Trocheck, Panarin and Kreider
PP2: Miller, Lafreniere, Chytil, Kakko, Smith
New York Rangers fantasy breakdown
One of the deepest teams in terms of fantasy value. I was really surprised to see that Trocheck didn’t crack the top 5 Banger in New York, but that speaks to the volume of bruisers they have on their squad.
One of the big question marks heading into your banger league drafts is should you draft Rempe. For me the question isn’t should, but when. The risk is that he isn’t a regular in the top 12. And that’s fair. But the upside is getting the number #1 most valuable player in PIMs + hits. So valuable that his contribution in those two categories alone make him a top 100 banger league player. He’s on an island by himself when it comes to hits/60 and PIMs/60. Is that worth a gamble in the 13th or 14th rounds of your draft? Yes. Grab the beefer who’s been training with Laraques all summer and will single handedly win you 2 categories all by himself every H2H matchup… if he’s playing.Â
I didn’t cover him below but the situation with Trouba in the offseason was super weird. I still think there's a chance he gets moved before camp… things are just too awkward at this point. Still has a lot of value in peripherals but his overall value is way down as his offensive contributions continue to drop off a cliff.
Player highlights
Vincent Trocheck
It was a career year for Trocheck last year as he crossed the 75 point mark for the first time, he played in all 82 games for the second year in a row (almost 3 missing one game 3 years ago). 25 goals, 52 assists, 77 points alongside 24 PPPs, 215 SOGs, 174 hits and a whopping 92 blocks. Considering the average projection had him around 62 points, it was a massive year.
Guess how many other players paced for at least 70 points, 200 SOG and 150 hits? Just 4: the Tkachuk bros, Svechikov and Trocheck.
Comparing last year’s performance to his previous 3 seasons (210 GP), the first thing that stands out is his PPTOI. Trocheck has never crossed the 70% PP share mark in his career but last year he hit 74.5% good for a whopping 3.5 minutes. He also saw his 5v5 TOI climb +13% and his overall TOI was almost 22 minutes per night, up +16% from his previous 3 seasons.Â
There’s really only one sign that points to Trocheck’s career year being unsustainable; his on-ice SH% was up +14%. Aside from that, everything else looks green. His IPP at 5v5 was too low (-17%) and his 2A/60 at 5v5 was way too low (-24%). He was even unlucky in the iSH% department at 5v5 converting on only 6.87% of shots compared to his usual 8.57%. What made matters worse for him is that he shot a lot less at 5v5, his SOG/60 rate was down -15%, maybe due to the fact that Panarin was trigger happy last year.Â
Of note, Trocheck really stepped up his shot blocking game. He saw career high Blk/GP, more than doubling his Blks/60 at 5v5 from 1.77 to 3.58. His PIMs/60 and hits/60 at 5v5 were both down though, which is often the case for players entering their 30s.Â
Overall, I think Trocheck largely benefited from an incredible season from Panarin. He seems to be locked next to him again this year and until that changes, he’s a solid bet for similar production. Count on the man for 70+ points, 20+ PPPs, 200+ SOGs and 80+ blocks while adjusting expectations for hits and PIMs. Draft Trocheck in the 4th or 5th rounds of your banger drafts as your 2nd center and feel great about it.
Adam Fox
Adam Fox doesn’t get enough love in banger leagues. Sure he’s completely useless in hits and PIMs, and doesn’t shoot a ton of pucks, but he’s elite everywhere else. He paced for 83 points over 72 games last year including a monsterous 40 special team points and 140 blocks. He also had himself quite the second half, pacing for 93 points and 162 blocks over his final 40 games.Â
Fox poped off for an elite 19 goal pace last year (7 on the PP), including pacing for 21 in the second half. This is off the back of an inflated iSH% though. The 12.41% iSH% he posted is +86% higher than the 6.68% he posted over his previous 215 GP. He was incredibly lucky at converting on the PP especially, his usual 2.83% PP iSH% was up a whopping +506% to 17.14%. So it’s safe to say Fox will see his goal totals come back down to Earth next year, especially on the man advantage.Â
On the plus side though, Fox did see his ixG/60 at 5v5 climb +17% alongside his iSCF60 rise +10%. So he was a lot more dangerous out there last year and it’s fair to assume he’s a lot more effeicient than he was previously.Â
I’ve got Fox for 14 goals, 79 points, 36 PPPs and 142 blocks. He’s ranked right after the top tier of Makar, Josi and Dahlin. You can confidently grab him as your 4th pick and 1st D in banger league drafts.Â
Alexis Lafreniere
Laf finally had himself a bit of a coming out party in his 4th year, playing all 82 games and posting career highs in goals (28), assists (29), SOGs (217), PPPs (6) and PIMs (40). Most encouragingly though were his second half numbers where he paced for 35 goals, 64 points and 53 PIMs.Â
Laf has always been an intriguing target because of his offensive potential and his contribution in the hits department. In 2022-23 he crossed 140 hits but that count fell to only 73 last year and paced for 62 in his final 40 games. His hits/60 at 5v5 crumbled -57% last year. Obviously Laf was finally being deployed as a regular top 6 forward for the first time in his career so the grinder role and finishing his checks weren’t a priority.Â
Laf still has 100+ point upside and I think he comes close to hitting 70 next year. What’s limiting him from popping off is his PP deployment. He’s the odd man out on the top unit and until that changes, his ceiling is really reduced. But Kreider, Zibad and Trocheck aren’t getting any younger and if things aren’t going great, it’s not crazy to think Laf has the inside track on that juicy PP1.
Some of the encouraging signs that Laf has even more room for growth are in his rate stats at 5v5. In his 4th year, his SOG/60 grew +47% despite seeing a -30% decline in his iSH%. His ixG/60 were up +56%, his iCF/60 were up +58% and his iSCF/60 were up 65%. He’s a special offensive player.
Even with a 69 point season though, I wouldn’t target Laf until the 11th round of your banger league draft. Just not enough PPP coverage and in his expected role, likely similar hit volume as last year.
Mika Zibanejad
After being a 40-50 point player for the first 6 years of his career, DJ Zibad blew up in his 3rd year in NY entering the 70 point echelon. He’s hit that mark (82-game pace) for 6 consecutive years now, posting a 73 point pace last year. This was a bit of a step down from expectations though as most folks had him pegged for 85+ points. He turned 31 this summer and I think a lot of folks are down on the guy and expecting the downward trend to continue. So let’s have a closer look.
When comparing last year to his previous 3 seasons (219 GP), the first thing that jumps out is his iSH% which is down by -42% at 5v5. Mika was able to maintain his normal SOG/60 as well as his iSCF/60 at 5v5. He even improved his ixG/60 and his iCF/60 at 5v5. He just converted on way less opportunities than he has previously.Â
Supporting the theory that he faced poor puck luck is his 5v5 on-ice SH% which was down -16% as well as his 5v5 IPP which was also way down at -28%. To top it all off, his 2A/60 at 5v5 fell off a cliff by -77%. Clearly Mika should’ve gotten in on a lot more goals and it’s reasonable to exact a return to form next season. That being said, he is on the wrong side of 30 and so is his linemate in Chris Kreider. His PIMs, hits and blocks per 60 rates at 5v5 are all falling off at a concerning rate as well.
I’ve got Mika projected for a return to the 30 goal plateau and hitting 80 points. I still think he’s a top 50 player in any format including banger leagues. I’d grab him in the 5th round of your banger draft, but you could probably snag him in the 6th as he’s C-only. He’s still a solid 2nd center on your squad until he shows more concerning signs of decline in his offensive metrics.Â
Chris Kreider
Kreider isn’t the banger he used to be but lots of people think he still carries that reputation. Gone are the days where you can count on him for 170 hits and 80 PIMs. That was Kreider like 9 years ago. Last year he missed the 100 hit per 82-game pace mark for the first time in his career. He also had his 3rd consecutive year posting under 30 PIMs.Â
Now that being said, he’s still an offensive weapon. Last year Kreider posted 39 goals and 75 points alongside a monstrous 246 SOGs and 34 STPs. This was an incredible bounceback performance for him after he paced for only 56 points the previous year and expectations for him was under 60 points by many projectors.Â
We can’t point to an insane iSH% as the reason for his bounceback like we could in 2021-22 when he scored 52 goals on the back of a 20.2% iSH%. He just shot a ton last year. He posted his second highest SOG/G mark of his career and converted on a career average normal iSH% of 15.9%. His iSH% on the PP was even a bit lower than it should’ve been.Â
What’s worrisome about his year last year is in the assist department. Kredier’s been a 0.22 2A/60 guy at 5v5 over his previous 210 games. But last year that rate more than doubled (+109%) to 0.46. That’s a ton more secondary assists that likely comes back down to Earth next year.Â
While the decline in peripherals is concerning and expected to continue in his age 33 season, Kreider isn’t showing any major signs of decline in terms of offensive efficiency. Stapled on one of the top PPs in the league, I think coming close to 65 points is totally reasonable. I’d grab Kreider around the 7th round of your banger league draft… probably later than he’ll actually go because he still carries that banger reputation. At LW, I’d rather have Fiala who’s going to pop more points and better peripherals.
Sources I used in part for this article:
Frozen Tools from DobberHockey. Game Logs, Line Combinations, NHL Lineups, Advanced Stats, Boxscores, Reports and more.
Fantasy Hockey Life. Prospects, Team Previews, Draft Content, Dynasty Strategy and more.
Natural Stat Trick. Line Combos, Shift Chart, Advanced Stats, Expected Goals, Shot Attempts, Rush Attempts, Zone Starts, Scoring Chances, IPP, Corsi and more.
HockeyViz from Micah Blake McCurdy. Visualizations, Predictions, Shot Maps, WOWYs, Quality of Teammates, Common Linemates, 5v5 Shift Starts and more.