New Jersey Devils Fantasy Preview
New Jersey Devils Fantasy Preview
Don't be the guy who spends a first round pick on Jack Hughes in a banger league, unless you're planning on drafting Gudas way too early. Timo is in for a big bounce back. Dougie vs Luke, who's PP1?
In this team by team series, we’ll be previewing the 2024-25 season ahead with a specific look at banger category options. We’ll start tackling the potential lines to get a sense of deployment, we’ll rank players by offense, bangs (PIMs, hits and blocks) and overall value and finally feature a few players in depth.
Lineup projection
(update: Aug 26)
New Jersey fired Lindy Ruff in early March and replaced him with Travis Green but this upcoming season will feature yet another coach, enter Sheldon Keefe. That’s 3 different systems that players are having to learn in a short amount of time. For all the crap Keefe took with the media in Toronto, you can’t deny that he loves his high speed offense and puck possession systems and he’s a fan of giving long leashes to his top guys, sometimes to a fault. Ignoring playoff numbers, his power plays have always been elite.
This is all up for change with Keefe, but for what it’s worth, the Devils ended the year with an injured Jack Hughes, rocking a top line of Hischier between Meier and Bratt, with Haula centering Holtz and Mercer. But Bowers also saw top line deployment at the end of the year and Mercer was moved to PP1 in replacement of Jack Hughes while Nolan Foote was net-front on PP2. In March, Jack Hughes was actually seeing time as a left winger on the second line with Haula and Bratt, while Mercer was seeing time on line 1 with Hischier and Meier. The experiment last over a month until Jack went down to an injury.
Here’s my best guess for now:
Meier - Hischier - Bratt
Tatar - Hughes - Mercer
Palat - Haula - Noesen
Cotter - Lazar - Bastian
Extras: Beckman, Foote
Hughes - Pesce
Siegenthaler - Hamilton
Dillon - Nemec
MacDermid - Kovacevic
Markstrom
Allen
Potential PP units:
PP1: Meier, Hischier, Bratt, J Hughes, L Hughes
PP2: Palat, Haula, Mercer, Noesen, Hamilton
New Jersey Devils fantasy breakdown
There’s really only 5 players worth drafting in banger leagues in New Jersey. Even if Luke Hughes takes +70% PP share from Dougie, he still doesn’t have much peripherals to bring the table. Dillon might be worth a stream during busy weeks but outside of that, none of the top 5 banger value players are worth owning. It’s all about offense in NJ, with the exception of Timo and Dougie who also fill a bunch of other categories.
Player highlights
Timo Meier
Respect goes out to all the owners who held strong on Timo after a disastrous start to the year. He put up an 82-game pace of 44 points and 228 shots in his first 28 games last year before turning on the jets and pacing for 74 points and 258 shots over the second half of the year. His final 21 games — when most fantasy managers were entering their playoffs — were insane, he paced for 94 points and 281 shots, including 39 PPPs.
Timo’s TOI finished the year at 17:36 which was only down -5% compared to his previous 3 seasons (209 GP), but that doesn’t tell the full story. Through his worst 14 game stretch, he averaged less than 16:00 TOI and only put up 4 points. But in that final quarter where he put up his 94 point pace, his TOI was up to 19:31 and 3:12 on the PP.
He finished the year with a 33 goal pace, but it could’ve been a lot uglier because his iSH% was actually +26% higher than his previous 3 seasons. Encouragingly, his SOG/60 at 5v5 rate was down -17%. What he should’ve lost in goals, he probably could’ve gained in apples though. His 2A/60 at 5v5 was down -23% but his 5v5 IPP and his on-ice SH% were both pretty flat. What’s most concerning is his iSCF/60 also fell off a cliff -22%.
It’s hard to pull too many conclusions from last season for Timo because of how wildly different his deployment was quarter over quarter. Hopefully he sees more of that Travis Green deployment under Keefe. I think projecting Meier for a conservative 65 point + 270 shot year is safest, but he could easily top those numbers. Either way, his output in hits and surprisingly solid block numbers last year make him a highly attractive banger league commodity worthy of a late 3rd or early 4th round pick.
Jack Hughes
Jack suited for 62 games last year, pacing for 98 points, 41 PPPs and 362 shots. His first half was phenomenal, he paced for 115 points but he came back down to earth over his final 30 games, pacing for 80 points, albeit shooting at a ridiculous 371 SOG pace. At 5v5, his SOG/60 (7th in the NHL) and his ixG/60 (23rd in the NHL) are off the charts, and both his iCF/60 (7th in the NHL) and iSCF/60 (18th in the NHL) are totally nuts. He’s a freak.
Jack Hughes is undoubtedly a brilliant offensive wizard, but he’s a glaring liability when it comes to banger categories. 10 hits in 62 games. Some guys cross that mark in a single game… Of players who dressed for more than 20 games, Jack ranked for 3rd worst hits/60 at 5v5, only 2 players managed to hit less. 0.37 hits per 60 minutes of play. On average, Hughes needs to be on the ice for 162.16 minutes to record 1 hit. It’s incredible that he manages to do this without bumping into someone by accident.
If you're in a league that counts hits, blocks, or PIMs, don’t be swayed by those experts who slot him in their top 5 multi-category rankings. It’s a mistake, especially if you’re playing in a head-to-head league. Combine that with the fact that he’s suffered several injuries over his short career. Considering his floating style and shying away from any kind of physicality, you’d think he’d be more like Bratt and dress for more games.
Now, to be clear, Hughes is a top 5 offensive fantasy player; that's not up for debate. But you need to be realistic about his limitations. He’s the softest player in that elite tier, and in leagues where toughness counts, you need to adjust your rankings accordingly. It's the same reason you should think twice about drafting players like Panarin or Kyle Connor too high. That said, I wouldn’t drop Hughes too far—he's still worth considering around the 15th spot—but there’s no way I’m using my first pick on him. Not unless you know Brady is going to be available on the turn. The overall value just isn’t there when you’re trying to win across all categories, and you should be by the way.
The common counterargument is, "It depends on how you build the rest of your roster." But this thinking is flawed, it leads you to fill out your team with players like Nicolas Deslauriers, Brayden McNabb, or Jani Hakanpää just to cover your banger categories. This is a great strategy if you’re aiming for average success. But it won’t lead to consistent success in a head-to-head league. You’re essentially gambling on extremes: Hughes for offense, and these banger specialists for everything else. But what happens when Hughes has a cold week? Or when your banger guys have an off night? You’ll find yourself getting crushed in one category or another, and that’s not how you win.
The key to overcoming this kind of variance is diversification. You want players who can contribute meaningfully across the board, not just in one or two areas and hinder your performance in other cats. Punting categories in a multi-category league isn’t a strategy you’ll ever see my recommend. This approach ensures that your team isn’t overly reliant on a handful of players to carry you in specific categories. Instead, you’re building a roster that can compete consistently, regardless of the matchup or week-to-week fluctuations.
Dougie Hamilton
Whether Keefe gives Dougie prime PP1 minutes or not, has such a massive effect on his overall value. Seeing how Luke Hughes got most of the PP1 minutes last year makes me really think it could happen again under Keefe, but my gut still says Dougie is the guy and he’ll be the default for Keefe… at least until he gets injured.
The thing that reassures me about projecting Dougie with solid PP minutes in the midst of this deployment debate, is that he paced for 33 PPPs despite only seeing 35.8% PP share. This was his a career high PPP/GP mark for him but it was only a 20 game sample size off the back of a whopping 44% iSH% on the PP (+315% higher than his previous 3 seasons). So yes it’s reassuring but that PP performance does look very unsustainable.
Dougie is a special player, he ranked 6th in the entire NHL in iCF/60 at 5v5, 1st amongst defenders. And it wasn’t jsut a lucky 20 game sample size. Dougie is 1st amongst D in the same metric (iCF/60 at 5v5) over the previous 3 seasons as well, and by a big margin also: Josi is 3rd with 14.89, Bouchard is 2nd with 15.27 and Dougie ranks 1st with 16.92. Another metric that Dougie just absolutely dominates is SOG/60. At 5v5, he was first last year amongst defenceman and he’s also been 1st over the previous 3 seasons.
Now, Dougie is 31 years old, and he’s battled big injuries and had his share of surgeries. Over the past 5 seasons, Dougie missed a total of 113 games, put another way, he’s played in 70% of games, or 57 games in an 82 game season. So at the very least, there’s likely to be at least 25 games that Luke Hughes gets free roam on PP1 and hopefully for Dougie, he doesn’t stick.
Overall, Dougie is still an elite offensive producer at 5v5 and Keefe should give him the PP1 keys, but even if he doesn’t, Dougie is still a weapon from the backend in any format. I’ve conservatively projected him for 22 PPPs hoping that he does see north of 55% pp share. Grab Dougie in the 5th or 6th round of your banger leagues, he’s a stud #2 D on your squad if he can stay healthy when it matters.
Jesper Bratt
Bratt is a man rocket and an offensive beast, but like Hughes, he really hurts your banger category coverage. If you want a balanced squad you really need to reach for some beefers and sacrifice offense later on in the draft if you pick this man too early.
Bratt had a fantastic season last year, dressing for all 82 games and popping 27 goals, 56 assists, 83 points, 28 special team points, 248 SOGs and 66 hits. Similarly to his linemate, he came back down to Earth a bit in the second half pacing for 72 points and only 14 special team points.
His 10.89 iSH% was down -15% last year compared to his previous 204 games at 12.75%, shooting at that later rate, Bratt would’ve popped off an extra 5 ginos. He increased his SOG/GP from 2.2 to 2.6 over the last few years and finally hitting the elusive 3.0 mark last year. But it was mostly on the back of a boost in TOI (+13%) as his SOG/60 at 5v5 were only +6% up.
He’s at least showing improvement in some of the banger cats though, Bratt saw his hits/60 at 5v5 climb +39% last year compared to his previous 204 games and more than doubled his Blks/60 at 5v5. Still though neither of those rates are anywhere close to great. His PIMs/60 were way down -40%, but last year was somehow not his career lowest, in 2022-23 he had only 6 freaking PIMs in 82 games. He rightly finished top 10 in voting for the Lady Byng Memorial Trophy. Unlike Jack Hughes though, Jesper isn’t a band aid boy, he’s played all 82 games in back to back years.
His 5v5 on-ice SH% was a bit too high +20% compared to his previous 204 games, but his IPP at 5v5 was normal and his 2A/60 rates were much lower… so that probably balances itself out. Most encouragingly is that at 5v5, Bratt elevated his ixG/60 by +24%, his iCF/60 by +10% and iSCF/60 by +16%. Bratt might even have another gear to hit with a healthy Jack Hughes all year.
Despite the lack of peripherals, I wouldn’t let Bratt fall out of the 6th or 7th round in banger leagues. Especially if you grabbed a banger or two already.
Sources I used in part for this article:
Frozen Tools from DobberHockey. Game Logs, Line Combinations, NHL Lineups, Advanced Stats, Boxscores, Reports and more.
Fantasy Hockey Life. Prospects, Team Previews, Draft Content, Dynasty Strategy and more.
Natural Stat Trick. Line Combos, Shift Chart, Advanced Stats, Expected Goals, Shot Attempts, Rush Attempts, Zone Starts, Scoring Chances, IPP, Corsi and more.
HockeyViz from Micah Blake McCurdy. Visualizations, Predictions, Shot Maps, WOWYs, Quality of Teammates, Common Linemates, 5v5 Shift Starts and more.