Minnesota Wild Fantasy Preview
Minnesota Wild Fantasy Preview
Is this the year Matt Boldy gets the respect he deserves in fantasy circles? Do we finally get a glimpse of Marco Rossi? Does Faber and JEEk take another step?
In this team by team series, we’ll be previewing the 2024-25 season ahead with a specific look at banger category options. We’ll start tackling the potential lines to get a sense of deployment, we’ll rank players by offense, bangs (PIMs, hits and blocks) and overall value and finally feature a few players in depth.
Lineup projection
(update: Aug 22)
John Hynes stepped in as Head Coach for the Wild in late November last year, just 19 games into the season, after Dean Evason was let go. Since then, Hynes's coaching style has become well-known, mirroring his four-year tenure in Nashville, where he emphasized a gritty, defensive approach to hockey.
At the start of December, MIN was rocking a top line of Kaprizov and Zuccarello centered by Rossi. Johansson, Eriksson Ek and Boldy rounded out the top 6. But by the end of the year, Eriksson Ek and Boldy were up on the top line with Kaprizov while Zuccarello was centered by Rossi on the second line flanked by Liam Öhgren.
Here’s my best guess for now:
Kaprizov - Eriksson Ek - Boldy
Johansson - Rossi - Zuccarello
Trenin - Khusnutdinov - Hartman
Lauko - Gaudreau - Foligno
Extras: Boyd, Ohgren, Johnson
Middleton - Faber
Brodin - Spurgeon
Merrill - Chisholm
Bogosian
Gustafsson
Fleury
Potential PP units:
PP1: Kaprizov, Boldy, Eriksson Ek, Zuccarello, Faber
PP2: Gaudreau, Johansson, Rossi, Hartman, Spurgeon
Minnesota Wild fantasy breakdown
Not a lot of big banger options in Minnesota that are worth owning, Marcus Foligno isn’t the player he was a few years ago. But there’s no shortage of offensive fire power. Kaprizov is elite. Boldy is incredibly underrated. Zuccarello is somehow still kicking it. Does Faber become a household name?
Player highlights
Matt Boldy
The 23 year old is entering his 4th season in the NHL after a fantastic 32 goal, 75 point pace season where he also racked up 27 PPPs, 248 shots and 52 PIMs. What I loved most about Boldy was his second half numbers. In his final 40 games, he paced for 86 points, 35 PPPs and 269 shots. I think we just got a glimpse of what Boldy could be if he actually stuck with Kaprizov. In his final 20 games, Hynes was playing Boldy over 20 minutes per night.
There’s nothing in Boldy’s micro stats that point to him being overly lucky last year either, his iSH% is pretty flat, his on-ice SH% at 5v5 is just a bit elevated, his IPP at 5v5 is also flat. You could even argue he missed out on a few extra points as his 2A/60 rates at 5v5 were too low compared to his previous 128 games (-19%) and his ixG/60 at 5v5 were down -7% despite seeing his iSCF/60 increase +8%. In fact his 9.74 iSCF/60 at 5v5 was good for 28th in the NHL last year right alongside guys like Barkov and MacKinnon.
Of note, he did shoot at a bit of a lower rate, his SOG/60 at 5v5 were down (-13%), his hits/60 at 5v5 were also way down (-60%) but interestingly his PIMs/60 were way up (+48%). Boldy is worth a 3rd or 4th round pick in your banger drafts but you can probably get him a bit later because folks are sleeping on this man.
Kirill Kaprizov
Kaprizov is a generational talent and not much needs to be said about the player. Only Brady Tkachuk and JT Miller posted better overall banger numbers last year at the LW position. That speaks volume of Kaprizov’s offensive value over replacement because he doesn’t provide a whole ton of value in the PIMs, hits and blks.
Last year’s pace was good for: 50 goals, 55 assists, 105 points, 45 PPPs and 303 shots. Even more insane was his second half numbers: 68 goals, 60 assists, 128 points, 53 PPPs and 332 shots. Only MacKinnon and McDavid were more valuable than Kaprizov down the stretch last year, good lord.
You could even argue that Kaprizov should’ve popped off a few extra goals and assists than he did when you compare his 5v5 rate stats last year compared to his 3 previous seasons. His iSH% was down -6% and his actual G/60 rate was down -13% while his ixG/60 was flat. His on-ice SH% was elevated (+14%) but his IPP at 5v5 was way lower than it usually is (-21%).
Is it crazy to think that Kaprizov even has another gear to hit seeing how players around him like Boldy, Rossi and Faber are getting much better? Kaprizov is a safe bet in all formats next year. Even in a banger league, you can draft the man confidently inside the top 10 and bank on another 100+ point pace season.
Joel Eriksson Ek
This man had himself a nice little breakout campaign last season.
The expectation: 61 points, 247 shots, 39 PIMs, 132 hits, good for the 24th best Center in banger leagues.
The performance: 68 points, 284 shots, 64 PIMs, 180 hits, good for the 10th best Center in banger leagues.
Let’s see how sustainable that performance was though. The first thing you notice is the bump in PPTOI that was up +45% last year compared to his 3 previous seasons. He saw similar PP deployment last year but it was his 1:11 PPTOI in 2020-21 that really brings down that average.
In terms of conversion rate, his iSH% was right where it’s been over the previous 211 games while being a tad high at 5v5 (+10%) but too low on the PP (-24%). He drove less individual scoring chances for at 5v5 last year (-7%) and his individual expected goals for per 60 were largely flat, however his actual goals per 60 were up +13%. So you could expect a few more PPGs but a few less 5v5 goals for JEEK next year.
In terms of overall points, looking at just his IPP at 5v5 he was unlucky, factoring into only 58% of goals while on the ice when that percentage should be more in the 66% range. But balancing this out was his on-ice SH% at 5v5 which was up +19% and his 2A/60 at 5v5 was way up +85% (good for 29th in the entire league last year), both of which should come way back down next year.
On the banger category side of things, as you saw in his count stats, his hits were up but so was his ice time, what’s more interesting was his PIMs/60 which sky rocketed +73% last year compared to his previous 211 games. There is a positive trend line on his PIMs year over year but it’s probably safer to project him back around the 0.6 ish PIM/GP mark which would bring his total down from 64 to 53.
While he did enjoy career highs in shots last year, there’s a tale of two seasons in those numbers. In his first 42 games he had 3.8 SOG/GP, and over the final 35 games that rate dropped to 3.1. While that doesn’t look like a huge drop, if you multiply those rates by 82 games, that’s a 310 SOG pace in the first half of the year, and a 253 SOG pace in the second half. At his average shooting percentage, that’s a 6.6 goal difference. I think it’s safer to project his SOG/60 rates around the 9.3 range.
Overall, it was a fantastic season for JEEK and whether it’s him or Rossi that gets prime deployment with Kaprizov, he’s a safe bet for PP1 duties and battling for top 10 C ranking in banger leagues again this year, I have him as C13. Draft JEEK in the 3rd or 4th rounds of your banger drafts this year.
Mats Zuccarello
The evergreen Norwegian marvel has defied the years yet again, posting another 65+ point season on an 82-game pace for the fifth time in his career. Remarkably, he's surpassed a 70+ point pace in three seasons over his 14-year journey—all within the last three years. Yes, you read that right: his most productive seasons have been at ages 36, 35, and 34.
Last year he paced for 75 points, 39 PPPs, 206 shots along with 57 blocks, good for the 17th best RW in banger leagues (by my rankings) and beating the age curve, once again. But it’s not all sunshine and rainbows.
Zuccarello’s 2A/60 rates at 5v5 were +35% higher than his previous 3 seasons, a rate that should come back to Earth next year, meaning a drop in apples. His iSCF/60 at 5v5 also took a big dive (-18%) alongside a drop (-10%) in ixG/60 at 5v5 indicating that he was being less dangerous with his scoring change generation. Nothing major here but worth noting that there was a slight dip in SOG/60 at 5v5, and his on-ice SH% at 5v5 was a bit too high.
That being said, his iSH% was way down compared to his previous 3 seasons (-48%) indicating that he faced a lot of poor luck and could’ve nearly doubled his goal numbers. His IPP at 5v5 was also too low (-14%) so what he could lose in 2A next year, he could make up for with a positive regression in IPP. But not playing alongside Kaprizov still hurts his overall output.
Overall, none of this screams upcoming age curve and a dramatically less effective player. But it has to happen at some point. He’s still a solid bet for PP1 duties and playing with either Eriksson Ek or an improving Rossi. I’ve got him for another 70+ point pace season with very little peripheral support but still worth a 7th or 8th pick in banger leagues.
Brock Faber
Faber had himself a nice coming out party last year. Projected by most to pace for under 25 points, 5 PPPs, 100 SOGs and 100 Blocks… Brock busted through those numbers posting 47 points, 16 PPPs, 136 SOGs and 151 Blocks. He even kicked things into another gear in the second half of the year pacing for 56 points, 25 PPPs and 146 SOGs.
While we don’t really have a sample size in the NHL to compare to, it’s safe to say that the 22 year old is cemented as the PP1 quarterback on a dangerously offensive team. The 46% PP share he had on the year seems low but it’s only because he saw virtually no PP time through the first 20 games. PP minutes on the back end went to Addison (64%), Spurgeon (53%), Goligoski (24%) and Brodin (18%). But then Addison was shipped out of town and Spurgeon was out most of the rest of the year with hip/back issues, it was the Brock Faber show after that. In the 61 remaining games he saw 63% PP share.
It is worth noting though that Spurgeon did come back for 3 games at the end of December and he saw 67%, 58% and 54% PP share, while Brock saw 48%, 39% and 36% in those respective games. Same pattern earlier in the year before Spurgeon went down with another injury. And both of those were under Hynes. So the takeaway is that Hynes still preferred Spurgeon as PP1 QB, but he’s a 35 year old band aid boy on the decline. Hynes would be crazy not to use Faber in this slot. Consider that over his entire NHL career, Spurgeon has never posted more than 14 PPPs, Faber posted 16 PPPs in his rookie season while still getting no PP time in the first 20 games.
One thing I love about Faber is his blocks. He posted 151 in his rookie year and while that pace dipped a bit in the second half, it was still a terrific bonus to his 56 point pace. Factor in an increase in overall TOI and another bump in PPTOI, all signs point to Faber being a stud on the backed for the next decade. I’ve got him conservatively projected as the 30th best D in banger leagues, ahead of guys like Seth Jones and Letang. I think as your 3rd or 4th D in the 11th or 12th rounds of your 12 team banger league draft is a great value spot for him.
Marat Khusnutdinov
The former 2nd round pick in the 2020 draft has the makings of a future banger league stud. Often one of the smallest dudes on the ice, he plays like a wrecking ball and loves to throw his weight around and blocks a ton of shots. In the KHL he was in the 67th percentile for hits/60 and the 86th percentile for blocks/60. His PIMs and shots were very low though. His metrics card is ver similar in his 16 game stint after moving to NA. I think he’s in tough to get offensive deployment this year but he’s a really solid bet to make the top 12 out of camp. At the very least, someone to keep an eye on if he gets moved up the lineup.
Liam Ohgren
Ohgren finished the year with the big club, dressing for 4 games and even getting top 6 minutes. He also played 3 games for Iowa but spent the rest of his campaign in the SHL putting up elite goal scoring numbers. Everything else was pretty mid though, in terms of rate stats. Aside from goals, he’s not particularly bad or great at any one cat. He’s in tough to crack full time duties this year but with a great camp, he could surprise.
Jakub Lauko
The former 77th overall pick in 2018 was acquired in June in exchange for Vinni Lettieri. He’s played 83 NHL games in his career so far, dressing for 60 with the big club last year and spending most of his time there. He isn’t expected to play a prominent role in Minny this year but will battle for a bottom 6 role. He’s worth keeping an eye on because he’s a volume hitter. He banged 176 bodies in only 60 games last year (240 pace) posting a measly 9:49 TOI, just shy of 16 hits per 60 at 5v5. That’s 17th best in the NHL last year, beating out the likes of Matt Martin, Duhaime and Foligno. If he does get a bump in ice time, he’s a solid bet for 280 ish hits and decent PIMs. Worth a spot on your watchlist as a streamer option when you need some hits.
Sources I used in part for this article:
Frozen Tools from DobberHockey. Game Logs, Line Combinations, NHL Lineups, Advanced Stats, Boxscores, Reports and more.
Fantasy Hockey Life. Prospects, Team Previews, Draft Content, Dynasty Strategy and more.
Natural Stat Trick. Line Combos, Shift Chart, Advanced Stats, Expected Goals, Shot Attempts, Rush Attempts, Zone Starts, Scoring Chances, IPP, Corsi and more.
HockeyViz from Micah Blake McCurdy. Visualizations, Predictions, Shot Maps, WOWYs, Quality of Teammates, Common Linemates, 5v5 Shift Starts and more.