Los Angeles Kings Fantasy Preview
Los Angeles Kings Fantasy Preview
Gone are the years when Kopitar and Doughty lead the Kings. Enter Kempe and Fiala, next up Byfield and Clarke?
In this team by team series, we’ll be previewing the 2024-25 season ahead with a specific look at banger category options. We’ll start tackling the potential lines to get a sense of deployment, we’ll rank players by offense, bangs (PIMs, hits and blocks) and overall value and finally feature a few players in depth.
Lineup projection
(update: Aug 20)
Rob Blake brought in Tanner Jeannot, Warren Foegele and big Joel Edmundson and Trevor Lewis is back on a year. Kopitar centering Byfield and Kempe was how head coach Todd McLellan started the year and it’s how Jim Hiller ended it. But there was plenty of line shuffling throughout the year. The expectation is that Laferriere will get the first crack at the top line with Kopi and Kempe, but I’m not sure it sticks. Byfield carried that line and it’s hard to think he doesn’t get top deployment next year. Spence and Clarke are expected to take over the minutes from departed Matt Roy.
Arvidsson, Dubois, Matt Roy, Lizotte and Grundstrom are all out and that’s amazing news for the younger guys like Turcotte, Thomas, Kaliyev and Fagemo.
Here’s my best guess for now:
Byfield - Kopitar - Kempe
Laferriere - Danault - Fiala
Moore - Turcotte - Foegele
Kaliyev - Thomas - Jeannot
Extras: Lewis, Fagemo, Studnicka
Anderson - Doughty
Gavrikov - Clarke
Edmundson - Spence
Englund, Burroughs, Moverare
Kuemper
Riitich
Potential PP units:
PP1: Byfield, Kempe, Kopitar, Fiala, Doughty
PP2: Danault, Moore, Kaliyev, Laferriere, Clarke
Los Angeles Kings fantasy breakdown
Grab Kempe in the 3rd round of you banger league with confidence, Fiala is worth a 5th or 6th rounder and Byfield is a safe bet in the 8th or 9th rounds (obviously earlier if you’re in a keep 4 or 5, this might be your last shot at him). Some later round picks could include Jeannot, Doughty and Kopitar.
Player highlights
Adrian Kempe
It’s kind of wild that Adrian Kempe was the King’s most valuable fantasy asset last year, and it wasn’t even close. He paced for 30 goals, 50 apples, 80 points, 33 special team points, 262 shots, 77 PIMs, 119 hits and 34 blocks. Talk about multi category coverage. Consider this: There were only 3 players last year who paced for 70+ points, 250+ shots, 100+ hits and 70+ PIMs… the Tkachuk brothers and Adrian Kempe.
Over the last 6 seasons, the man they call The Juice has consistently improved his points per game from a 28 point pace in 2018 to an 80 point pace last year. He’s also massively improved his shots, hits and PIMs along the way becoming an elite banger fantasy asset. 66 points makes him really good, 80 make him elite. Can he do it again? Let’s have a closer look.
The first thing that jumps out with Kempe is his 2A/60 rates which is waaaay up +160% compared to his previous 3 seasons. His on-ice SH% at 5v5 is also up +25% combined with his IPP at 5v5 also up +14%. The screams unsustainable and a likely drop in overall points next year.
However, you could make the argument that Kempe faced some poor luck in the goal scoring department. His iSH% is down -21% compared to his previous 3 seasons, especially on the PP which was down -26%. Given his shot volume, if he converted on the same rate he did over his part 3 seasons, Kempe would’ve popped off an extra 7 or 8 goals.
So what Kempe could lose in the assist department, he could stand to gain in the goals department. His 18.46 iCF/60 at 5v5 is elite and is a +21% improvement on his previous 3 seasons meaning that he is improving and he could put up similar numbers to last year. Throw in an improving Byfield and Clarke… maybe he can even continue his upwards trajectory?
By my ranking, Kempe was the 19th best skater in banger leagues next year and I have him exactly there again this year, meaning he’s totally worth a 2nd or 3rd round pick in multi cate leagues.
Kevin Fiala
On paper, Fiala’s deployment has been really weird since arriving in LA. Rarely getting time on the top line and even seeing most of his 5v5 minutes on L3, Fiala still gets prime PP1 deployment crossing the elusive 60% PP share mark and setting career best 3:09 PPTOI. And he made the most of that PP time racking up a career best 30 PPPs and 11 PPGs dressing in all 82 games.
Fiala also set career best numbers in TOI, hits, PIMs, Blks. But it wasn’t a career best year in the points department, he hit 73 points, down from the 86 and 85 point pace he set in his previous 2 seasons.
Of note, Fiala’s on-ice SH% was down -22% last year compared tho his previous 3 seasons, his IPP at 5v5 was down -8% and his 2A/60 at 5v5 were also down -21%. These are all good indicators that Fiala was facing a bit of poor puck luck in the points department. On the other hand, his 21% iSH% on the PP was inflated by +89% and that likely regresses to the his usual 11%.
Over the past few years Fiala has come alive in the second half of the year but last year was an exception, he actually performed better in the first half of the year. Draft Fiala in the 5th or 6th rounds of your banger leagues and feel great about it.
Quinton Byfield
Has Byfield finally arrived? Last year he hit career highs in all categories, pacing for 21 goals, 36 apples, 56 points, 14 STP, 166 SOGs, 43 PIMs, 68 hits and 19 blocks. But we got hints a of potential future multi cat stud, he improved in a lot of areas in the second half of the year pacing for 170 SOGs, 56 PIMs, 104 hits and 30 blocks over the final 41 games.
There was even an 18 game stretch in the 3rd quarter of the year where QB put up 16 points (73 point pace), skating 17:58 TOI. Consistency is still an issue with him though as he finished the year with only 9 points in his final 22 games (34 point pace). He turned 22 yesterday and with another bump in ice time and steady PP1 deployment, Byfield could be in for another massive breakout.
Last year was the first year Byfield played more than 53 games in a season so we don’t have a huge sample size to compare his performance to, but 99 games isn’t nothing. But keep in mind, those 99 games were a much younger, developing version of him, still getting acclimated to the NHL and growing into his lanky frame. That being said, there are definitely some warning signs upon closer inspection.
At first glance Byfield’s iSH% is up +90% last year, crossing 12.3% while his rate was only 6.5% in his first 99 games. His conversion rate on the power play was specifically inflated increasing +190%… but this was his first year getting actual steady man advantage minutes. Is 19% PP iSH% way too high? The average amongst players who scored a PPG last year was 16%. Over the previous 3 seasons, 94 players in the NHL have a PP iSH% greater than 19%, so it’s totally possible Byfield comes close to that conversion rate again as he keeps improving.
Another metric that jumps out is Byfield’s IPP at 5v5 which rose +41% last year at 78.72% compared to the 55.77% he hit over his previous 99 games. That was good for 34th in the NHL last year (min 30 GP). Byfield is a game breaking talent though and if you watched any of his game, he carried any line that he was playing on. So while this might come back down to Earth a bit next year, it’s more an indication of an elite player, than a lucky player. To support this theory, I like to make sure chance and scoring chance rates are improving. Byfield’s ixG/60, iCF/60 and iSCF/60 at 5v5 are improving and still have plenty of room for growth.
Most encouragingly is his SOG/60 at 5v5 which is improving steadily, hitting just shy of 7 last year, up +31%. Worth noting that his on-ice SH% was actually too low coming in at 8.82%, down -7% compared to the 9.45% he hit previously.
Overall, Byfield is a future star in the making, the only question is when he becomes that 35 goal, 60 assists, 95 point stud with 260+ shots, 70 PIMs, 150 hits. Matter of time.
Tanner Jeannot
I was a huge Jeannot fan after his 2021-22 campaign where he hit 24 goals, 41 points, 130 PIMs, 124 SOGs, 318 hits and 64 blocks. We’re only 2 years removed from that performance and it was really his first full season. Needless to say, he’s been a massive disappointment since, pacing for only 19 and 21 point seasons after that. The SOGs/G and PIMs/G also fell off a consistent cliff. The hits are really the only thing he’s been able to keep pace on.
Can Jeannot ever recreate the glory of his first full season? The numbers don’t look great.
For starters, he needs that 16 min per night deployment he had in 2021. Those minutes dropped to 14:15 and only 12:01 last year. But he needs to get his shots back on track. Jeannot’s SOG/60 at 5v5 are down -26% last year compared to his previous 3 seasons (171 GP).
To make things worse, Jeannot needs to get more dangerous with his shots again. Comparing to the same previous sample size, his ixG/60 at 5v5 are down -21%. His iSCF/60 and iCF/60 at 5v5 are also both down -16% and -11%. So we’re not talking about a player who’s facing some poor conversion luck, he’s just not being as productive as his former self. But it’s not goals, Jeannot’s 2A/60 rates are up +36% and likely to come back down to Earth.
You can’t deny his bangs though. His 17.69 hits/60 at 5v5 are elite, top 10 in the NHL and his 7.21 PIMs/60 at 5v5 is good for 18th in the NHL. There’s only 4 players last year who paced for 100+ PIMs and 300+ hits:
Martin Pospisil
Jeremy Lauzon
Garnet Hathaway
Tanner Jeannot
Overall, the numbers don’t look great for Jeannot even if he were to get a big bump in deployment. I won’t be betting on him finding his 2021 offensive groove again until he shows us better signs. I still think he’s worth drafting, I have him just inside the top 130 skaters which is right around the 11-12th round.
Brandt Clarke
Clarke didn’t crack the big club last year but did show a ton of promise when he was called up due to injuries. He thrived in his first full AHL season racking up 46 points in 50 games, leading all defencemen in the league in PTs/G (min 10 GP). He’d need to have a disastrous camp to not make the opening night lineup. The real story is going to be the PP1 quarter back battle between Doughty, Spence and Clarke. Overall though, Clarke displayed elite SOG/60 rates along side his league leading offense. He also racked up nearly a PIM per game, something that’s been consistent throughout his career. His blocks are also solid… but the hits are virtually non existent.
Alex Turcotte
Turcotte dressed for 20 games with LA last year and 35 in the AHL. There’s not a lot to glean from Turcotte’s rate stats in his 20 game stint with the big club… he didn’t do much of anything aside from block some shots. In the AHL though we got a better glimpse of him, the offense was much better, the Blks continued, but the SOG/60 were still really low and the Hits/60 were in the bottom 10th percentile. Even if he busts out offensively, Turcotte just hasn’t show much potential in multi category leagues to warrant any interest.
Samuel Fagemo
Fagemo was picked up on waivers in October last year by Nashville, he played 4 games and was sent back to the AHL where LA picked him right back up. He’s been teased with NHL action for 3 years now, playing in 4, 9 and 8 games over those 3 seasons. But we’ve got plenty of games in the AHL to get a sense of his rate stats. Fagemo is a classic offensive, heavy shot volume player but not a target in banger leagues. Low PIMs, really low blocks and Johnny Gaudreau colume hits. Not someone I’m adding to my watch list.
Sources I used in part for this article:
Frozen Tools from DobberHockey. Game Logs, Line Combinations, NHL Lineups, Advanced Stats, Boxscores, Reports and more.
Fantasy Hockey Life. Prospects, Team Previews, Draft Content, Dynasty Strategy and more.
Natural Stat Trick. Line Combos, Shift Chart, Advanced Stats, Expected Goals, Shot Attempts, Rush Attempts, Zone Starts, Scoring Chances, IPP, Corsi and more.
HockeyViz from Micah Blake McCurdy. Visualizations, Predictions, Shot Maps, WOWYs, Quality of Teammates, Common Linemates, 5v5 Shift Starts and more.