Anaheim Ducks Fantasy Preview
Radko Gudas, Frank Vatrano and Mason McTavish lead an underrated list of options in banger leagues.
In this team by team series, we’ll be previewing the 2024-25 season ahead with a specific look at banger category options. We’ll start tackling the potential lines to get a sense of deployment, we’ll rank players by offense, bangs (PIMs, hits and blocks) and overall value and finally feature a few players in depth.
Lineup projection
(update: Jul 18)
I’m very curious to see what opening night lines look like in Anaheim. Gauthier could catapult up my rankings if he gets terrific EV deployment including some PP time… but is he even a lock to crack the roster out of camp? He’s certainly talking like it’s a done deal. Zellweger taking PP1 or will he still get some seasoning in San Diego?
Here’s my best guess:
Zegras - Carlsson - Vatrano
Gauthier - McTavish - Terry
Killorn - Strome - Leason
Fabbri - Lundestrom - Harkins
Extras: Johnston - McGinn (IR?)
Mintyukov - Gudas
Zellweger - Fowler
Dumoulin - LaCombe
Vaakanainen
Dostal
Gibson
Potential PPs:
PP1: Terry, Carlsson, Vatrano, Zegras and Zellweger
PP2: Killorn, McTavish, Gauthier, Strome and Fowler/Mintyukov?
Note that there could still be lots of movement before puck drop. Vatrano is often rumoured to be on the block.
Anaheim Ducks fantasy breakdown
While ANA is destined towards the bottom of the NHL standings, there are still very legit players for bangers cats fantasy hockey leagues.
ANA is a perennial off night heavy team so if you’re in an H2H league there’s a case to be made for reaching for some of these guys. There’s 4 guys I think are worth drafting in banger leagues, Radko Gudas (6th or 7th rounds), Frank Vatrano (7th or 8th), Mason McTavish (8th or 9th) and Trevor Zegras (10th).
You can absolutely make a case for Cutter Gauthier if you’re in a keeper league though, more on him in a bit.
If it’s not obvious enough yet, this is for banger leagues. Terry is easily a 6th or 7th rounder in redraft points only leagues but in a banger league, I wouldn’t touch him until one of my last picks in the 16th or 17th round.
Similarly, 30 year old Ross Johnston is a safe bet for 130+ PIMs and 170+ hits and is the 2nd best option for bangs on the Ducks, but overall he’s a much better streamer option if you need those cats, because that’s all he does and overall value wise he’s barely replacement level.
Player highlights
Frank Vatrano
To say Vatrano had a great season would be an understatement. He won my award for the most surprising 2023-24 performance in banger fantasy leagues. 37 goals, 60 points, 24 pps, 272 sog, 85 pim, 156 hits, 78 blks. He finished inside the top 10 RWs while most had him projected outside the top 50 RWs. I had him RW62 😅.
Suffice to say, he’s hard to project this year. Part of his big year was due to his bump in deployment: His 5v5 TOI was pretty flat but his PPTOI grew by +83% last year compared to his previous 3 years (208 GP). His PP share went from 35.6% in 2023-24 to 51.8% last year. Greg Cronin is a big Vatrano fan.
Looking at rate stats, Vatrano had tremendous growth in multiple categories last year compared this his previous 3 seasons: He doubled his 5v5 PIMs/60, had +46% growth in 5v5 Hits/60 and +62% growth in 5v5 Blks/60. Oddly 5v5 SOG/60 was down by a little bit. It’s unlikely that in his age 31 season he’s able to continue this torrid pace, but it’s not impossible that he still beats his previous 3 season averages again.
Aside from that, there’s plenty of potential negative regression signs. His iSH% (individual shooting percentage) at all strengths was up +29% last year compared to his previous 3 seasons. His iSH% grew at 5v5 (+11%) but it was on the PP that it saw the most growth (+42%). His 5v5 on-ice SH% (team SH% when the player in on the ice) climbed by +30% from 7.19% to 9.36% in his previous 3 seasons. All of these metrics point to some serious puck luck for Vatrano.
But his 5v5 IPP was actually -12% lower than the previous 3 years... This could be explained by having better linemates. Better quality linemates means you might get in less on points and you don’t carry the line as much. Vatrano played with Strome and McTavish the most last year. The year previous to that, his most common linemates were a mix of Strome, Zegras, Silfverberg and Lundestrom and previous to that he was in NY playing with Zibanejad and Kreider. Is Strome and McTavish the best of that group? I don’t think so but I didn’t want to go down this rabbit hole any further.
If Greg gives him the same TOI and PP deployment... there is a world where he comes close again... and I might regret ranking him RW20. Target him in the 7th round in a banger league.
Radko Gudas
Radko recently turned 34 and it’s hard to believe he’s coming off one of his best years. Career year in blocks and almost career year in PIMs and TOI. His hits were way down though (-22%). He paced for “only” 288 hits last year while his league leading average over the previous 3 season was 370 per 82 games. This drop was also noticeable in his rate stats, his 5v5 hits/60 dropped -30%. But he turned it on in the second half of last year pacing for 320 over his final 29 games.
What we lost in hits with Gudas though, he made up for in blocks. That’s what boosts his value, his Blks pace went up +62% and his 5v5 Blks/60 climbed +35%. He averaged 118 blocks over the previous 3 years in FLA but racked up a monster 191 pace last year with ANA, including a 218 pace in the second half.
The warrior known as The Butcher might be getting grey, but he's still a man on a mission and the most unique banger league asset. Last year he was THE ONLY player to pace for 100+ PIMs, 250+ Hits and 150+ Blocks. He’ll hurt you in offensive categories but he makes up for it with that peripheral coverage. What a freaking beast.
I think somewhere in the 6th or 7th round for Gudas is really good value. Obviously though, if you went light on bangs with your first few picks, he’s not a terrible option to reach early. This is what I did last year. My Quinn Hughes + Radko Gudas was a match made in heaven.
Mason McTavish
Still only 21 years old despite entering his 3rd full season, McTavish is well on his way to being a household banger league asset, he’s just not quite there yet... but could be by this time next year.
The PIMs are the most attractive element to his game, he paced for 110 PIMs last year, including 130 in the second half. So if you’re an unlucky soul who’s in a wanna-be banger league that doesn’t count PIMs, you can safely drop McT down your list.
But the hits have been rising (+18%) and so has his offense; he has positive increases in 5v5 iCF/60 and iSCF/60. At first glance his SOG counts seem to have dropped a bit but his 5v5 SOG/60 actually climbed +14% last year compared to his previous 89 games. He could easily blow past these numbers next year but a lot of things need to go right.
Outside of PIMs, he doesn’t really crush any one category, but he’s also not bad at any. He’s got a pretty decent floor and a ton of potential if he can stay healthy and pop off.
Of note, there are some minor flags on the regression metrics for McTavish. His 5v5 on-ice SH% (team SH% when the player in on the ice) jumped from 7.76% in his previous 89 games to 10.59% last year which indicates that he may have had a bit more puck luck last year but is still in a reasonable range and doesn’t scream unsustainable. Similarly, his 5v5 secondary assists/60 we’re up a bit but nothing crazy and his 5v5 iSH% is also up but not unexpected for an improving young player.
Target him in the 8th or 9th rounds.
Trevor Zegras
Wild how many folks are writing off Trevor Zegras. Obviously some recency bias here as he's coming off a horrendous 40 point pace injury riddled season... but don't forget he's only 23 years old despite entering his 5th season.
He faced a ton of poor luck metrics last season too. His iSH% (-30%), 5v5 SH% (-18%) and especially his PP SH% (-62%) were all unsustainably low compared to his previous 180 games. His 5v5 on-ice SH% also dropped -20% from 9.62% to 7.73%. He had an 5v5 ixG/60 (individual expected goals per 60) of 0.76 but only an actual 5v5 G/60 of 0.58. Nothing was going his way last year (except for his 5v5 2A/60 which had a big bump).
On the positive side of things he didn’t have any major dips in 5v5 iCF/60 or 5v5 iSCF/60. His 5v5 Blks/60 actually nearly doubled going from 1.21 to 2.16 and his 5v5 PIMs/60 also grew a bit.
Similarly to McTavish, his PIMs give him a unique edge in leagues that count that stat (real banger leagues). What do banger stud veterans in Marchand, Svechnikov, Malkin, Konecny and both Tkachuk brothers have in common with Zegras? Over the last 3 seasons, they are the only 7 forwards in the league to generate an 82-game pace of:
60+ points
180+ shots
70+ PIMs
There’s sneaky value there and even greater upside if her can build on his 67 point pace sophomore year. Bonus: he has gorgeous hair. Worth a 10th round pick but you could likely snag him later.
Cutter Gauthier
All eyes on Cutter Gauthier next year, especially in banger leagues. In Boston College last year his rates stats were phenomenal. 98th percentile in SOG/60, 80th percentile in Hits/60 alongside elite offence. With top 9 deployment, this man will bang and is worth a reach in redraft leagues. Sky high potential.
My home league is a keep-4 league but we’re expanding to keep-5 at the end of next season. That likely means many teams are going to lean on younger guys at the top of the draft.
So I’m really tempted to reach for Gauthier, but I’m always in win-now mode so it’s really hard to justify. He cracks my top 10 assets in ANA and he’s totally worth a reach in the middle rounds. But if you’re in a keeper, you' have to spend an early pick on him. You’re not buying into this season but his potential output in 3-4 years which could easily be a top 10 LW one day.
If you think he cracks L1 + PP1 duties like DFO does, this guy should be a slam dunk.
Nathan Gaucher
Former memorial cup champ, Gaucher is in tough to crack the roster this year but he could see cups of coffee with injuries. He's a future banger league star as you can see from his AHL card above. 87th percentile in hits/60, 8th percentile in pims/60 (this is a good thing haha) and 96th percentile in blocks/60.
Olen Zellweger
Zellweger has a good chance at top4D out of camp and should be a target in points only leagues... but don't reach in banger leagues, at least not this year. His AHL card shows 13th percentile hits/60, 31st percentile blks/60. Interestingly though, he did get 36 blks in 26 with the ducks though, so worth keeping an eye on.
Sources I used in part for this article:
Frozen Tools from DobberHockey. Game Logs, Line Combinations, NHL Lineups, Advanced Stats, Boxscores, Reports and more.
Fantasy Hockey Life. Prospects, Team Previews, Draft Content, Dynasty Strategy and more.
Natural Stat Trick. Line Combos, Shift Chart, Advanced Stats, Expected Goals, Shot Attempts, Rush Attempts, Zone Starts, Scoring Chances, IPP, Corsi and more.
HockeyViz from Micah Blake McCurdy. Visualizations, Predictions, Shot Maps, WOWYs, Quality of Teammates, Common Linemates, 5v5 Shift Starts and more.
PuckPedia. Full roster breakdowns, Contracts, Salaries and more.