2024-25 Top 350 Banger League projections and rankings available for free
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This is my 3rd year releasing projections. If you include all the team previews and the 100+ player cards I built on top of these projections, you’re probably looking at a body of work that counts well over 500 hours of blood sweat and data.
And it’s yours, completely for free.
Here’s a preview
NEW this year
You’ll find a ranking for both leagues that count PIMs and the unfortunate leagues that don’t count PIMs.
Legend:
GP Risk: If the player is likely to miss games this year, either due to being often injured or not being a regular roster skater.
STP: Special team points are the sum of power play points and shorthanded points. For most players this is mainly power play points.
OFF: Offense VORP (value over replacement). The sum of the value of goals, assists, special team points and shots on goal.
BANG: Banger VORP. The sum of the value of penalties, hits and blocks.
Score: Overall VORP. The sum of the value of goals, assists, special team points, shots on goal, penalties, hits and blocks. This is a weighted formula shaped by z-score rankings and VORP, accounting for cat scarcity and interdependency. It's the result of years of fine-tuning. I'd love to share the full workings, but some recipes are meant to be kept under wraps.
It’s worked well for plenty of banger fanatics.
How do I build projections?
I start with lineup projections and deployment (including PP TOI) and per 60 rate stats over the last 3 years + the last 40 games of last year.
I have a different regression curve based on age and player size (overall bigger guys take longer to develop).
I factor in some luck metrics like 5v5 2A, on-ice SH%, iSH%, IPP, ixG/60, iCF/60 and iSCF/60.
Then I forecast 82-game paces for this year's projected deployment.
Finally sometimes my model hallucinates a bit so I tweak things manually.
Projections are most useful for H2H category leagues, but you can plug in your specific point league weights to calculate fantasy points and rank that way. I prefer ranking guys by 82 GP pace. Injuries are hard to predict and what matters most is what a player will do during your fantasy playoffs.
Sources I used in part for these projections:
Frozen Tools from DobberHockey. Game Logs, Line Combinations, NHL Lineups, Advanced Stats, Boxscores, Reports and more.
Fantasy Hockey Life. Prospects, Team Previews, Draft Content, Dynasty Strategy and more.
Natural Stat Trick. Line Combos, Shift Chart, Advanced Stats, Expected Goals, Shot Attempts, Rush Attempts, Zone Starts, Scoring Chances, IPP, Corsi and more.
HockeyViz from Micah Blake McCurdy. Visualizations, Predictions, Shot Maps, WOWYs, Quality of Teammates, Common Linemates, 5v5 Shift Starts and more.