Colorado Avalanche Fantasy Preview
Colorado Avalanche Fantasy Preview
Colorado has been missing Banger legend Gabriel Landeskog for 2 years. Will he be back? What about Nichushkin? Is this the year that Kovalenko comes out of nowhere?
In this team by team series, we’ll be previewing the 2024-25 season ahead with a specific look at banger category options. We’ll start tackling the potential lines to get a sense of deployment, we’ll rank players by offense, bangs (PIMs, hits and blocks) and overall value and finally feature a few players in depth.
Lineup projection
(update: Aug 10)
This is almost not a worthwhile exercise given the question marks with Landy, but here’s a depth chart break down at the very least.
Here’s my best guess for now:
Lehkonen - MacKinnon - Rantanen
Drouin - Mittelstadt - Kovalenko
Wood - Colton - Kiviranta
Kelly - Wagner - O’Connor
Landeskog? Nichushkin? Foudy?
Toews - Makar
Girard - Manson
De Haan - Brannstrom
Extras: Johnson, Malinski?
Georgiev
Annunen
Who knows how the PP lines shake out.
Colorado Avalanche fantasy breakdown
Tons of offensive fire power in COL, but outside of rookie Kovalenko, not a lot of bangers who don’t crush you offensively that are worth drafting. I guess Manson is a decent final pick if you went really soft in your draft but I’d look elsewhere for more well rounded talent if that’s your strategy.
Player highlights
Gabriel Landeskog
I really wanted to cover Landeskog in the hopes that we finally get to see him on the ice again. What version of him are we going to get if we do get him back though. Landy quadriceps surgery in 2020, two knee surgeries in 2022, cartilage transplant surgery in May 2023. The man hasn’t played a game since they won the cup.
The last three season that he played, we saw him for less than 55 games, while still posting a rising 82 game pace of 67 points, then 79 and finally 95 points. His stat line in 2021-22 was insane. 95 point-pace, 24 STPs, 125 PIMs, 241 SOGs, 151 hits and 55 blocks.
I think it’s safe to assume a slightly less physical version of Landeskog who’s still dominant on the power play… but I wouldn’t rule anything out. He’s been out for so long that you have to think he waits until he’s 1000% ready and comfortable so you’d hope that means a return to his usual relentless workhorse ways. We’ll see.
Nathan MacKinnon
Don’t need to spend too much time on this dawg. We all know how dominant he is and last year was no exception.
He posted career best numbers in G, A, SOG, PPP and Blocks, wow. He scored 51 goals including 59 in the second half alongside a monstrous 89 assists.
Of note, his iSH% (individual shooting percentage) was up +17% last year compared to his previous 3 seasons. His iSH% at 5v5 was particularly higher (+41%) than it’s trended in the past. His ixG/60 (individual expected goals per 60) at 5v5 were normal but his actual G/60 were much higher, hinting that he was a bit too lucky in converting last year at 5v5. But on the flip side, his iSH% on the PP was way too low.
His 2A/60 numbers were unsustainable also, at 5v5 he posted a +59% increase compared to his previous 3 seasons, it was also unsustainable at all strengths. So several metrics pointing to a potential downward regression to the mean for MacKinnon this year but even a dip in points doesn’t have a major impact on his ranking.
Mikko Rantanen
The Moose had another terrific campaign and doesn’t get enough respect in banger leagues. He has sneaky value in PIMs.
Last year he paced for 107 points and that was steady in both halves of the season. Interestingly his STP pace dropped in the second half to 29 but finished the year pacing for 41.
Unlike MacKinnon, Rantanen’s numbers seem a bit more sustainable but he did also pace for 33 less points. His iSH% rates were a tad low at 5v5 and a tad high on the PP. His ixG/60 and actual G/60 at 5v5 were both down a bit. His 2A/60 rates were a bit unsustainable though. So it’s reasonable to expect a slight drop in apples but a bump in goals.
Of note, his PIMs/60 and Hits/60 at 5v5 were down quite a bit while his Blks/60 were trending in the opposite direction.
Cale Makar
The undisputed number 1 D in all formats, including banger leagues. Dahlin could give him a run for his money but Makar decided that he wanted to be amazing at blocking shots also, nearly hitting the 2 hits per game mark.
Makar hit a 96 point pace last year including 46 on special teams, career bests in both categories. As mentioned he also hit a 158 block pace, 166 in the second half… not that we really needed him to do that too. Won’t be of much help in hits and definitely not PIMs, he only had an 8 PIM pace in the second half.
Makar’s 2A/60 point to a potential regression to the mean though, they were +57% higher last year than his 3 previous seasons. His IPP at 5v5 (individual points percentage) was also a bit high. That being said what we lose in apples this year we could gain in goals, Cale’s iSH% in all situations was -11% compared to his previous 3 seasons, his iSH% on the PP was particularly low at -27%.
His hit and PIM rate dropped but what jumps out the most is the Blks/60. His last 3 seasons average is 2.91 blocks/60 at 5v5 and last year he had 4.88, a +68% increase.
Nikolai Kovalenko
He’s a newcomer on the scene this year and banger leagues fanatics need to consider this Russian 24 year old. With all the question marks surrounding Nichushkin and Landeskog, he’s seen by many as a lock for not just making the Avs out of camp but getting top 6 deployment.
And this guy loves to throw his body around. He’s in the 96th percentile amongst hits per 60 in the KHL last year alongside tons of PIMs. I’d go as far as saying that he’s totally worth a draft pick. But fair warning he will get injured pretty often.
Sean Behrens
The former 61st overall pick is a mobile two-way defender who has solid potential in banger leagues posting 86th and 75th percentile hits and blocks numbers in he’s second championship season with Denver. He’s unlikely to get too much time this year but he could get a few call-ups.
Sam Malinski
Malinski suited up for 26 games with COL last year and should get a few call-ups again this season and actually has a shot and sticking with the big club. He’s an undrafted 26 years old, so not a typical young rookie. Not really a key target in banger leagues, he hasn’t shown the /60 rates in hits or blocks at either level.
Sources I used in part for this article:
Frozen Tools from DobberHockey. Game Logs, Line Combinations, NHL Lineups, Advanced Stats, Boxscores, Reports and more.
Fantasy Hockey Life. Prospects, Team Previews, Draft Content, Dynasty Strategy and more.
Natural Stat Trick. Line Combos, Shift Chart, Advanced Stats, Expected Goals, Shot Attempts, Rush Attempts, Zone Starts, Scoring Chances, IPP, Corsi and more.
HockeyViz from Micah Blake McCurdy. Visualizations, Predictions, Shot Maps, WOWYs, Quality of Teammates, Common Linemates, 5v5 Shift Starts and more.